Latest Research & Insights
November 2025: Financial Stability & the Calm Before the Cut
November 4, 2025by Leona Sui
The Fed's Financial Stability Report reveals stretched valuations, rising hedge fund leverage, and AI-driven concentration risk — all beneath an eerily calm surface.
Read more →October 2025: The QT Endgame
October 30, 2025by Leona Sui
The Fed cuts again, announces the end of quantitative tightening, and Powell signals that the balance sheet era is closing — but deep divisions emerge within the FOMC.
Read more →September 2025: The Turn
September 25, 2025by Leona Sui
The Fed delivers its first rate cut of 2025, signaling a shift in the balance of risks as unemployment rises to its highest level since October 2021.
Read more →August 2025: Jackson Hole & the Framework Reset
August 28, 2025by Leona Sui
Powell unveils the results of the 2025 Framework Review at Jackson Hole, abandoning average inflation targeting and signaling a philosophical shift in how the Fed thinks about its mandate.
Read more →July 2025: Dissent & Divergence
July 31, 2025by Leona Sui
The FOMC holds rates but two governors break ranks to call for cuts, while global central banks chart divergent paths — the BOJ tightens as the ECB eases.
Read more →June 2025: Liquidity Trends & Policy Outlook
June 25, 2025by Leona Sui
Analyzing the implications of recent treasury issuance, Fed balance sheet shifts, and the structural transformation of U.S. dollar liquidity.
Read more →The Return of Reflexivity in Global Macro
May 10, 2025by Leona Sui
Revisiting Soros' theory of reflexivity in today's macro environment — from tariff-uncertainty spirals to AI valuation loops and credit cycle feedback.
Read more →